Wil Ewart called it right a year ago

Thought it would be a useful reminder to readers that the writing was on the wall a full year ago. This piece by Wil Ewart, has turned out to be remarkably prescient.

What if Rawmarsh isn’t an aberration?

There is a crack, a crack in everything, That’s how the light gets in –Leonard Cohen

What if Rawmarsh isn’t an aberration? What if two things are going on here? A national swing to UKIP and a Labour vote in Rotherham that is sick of their Councillors reputation for greed, cronyism, nepotism, manipulation, sleight of hand and deception.

If the swing to UKIP is big nationally, it was ginormous in Rawmarsh. My spies in UKIP were telling me before polling day that faith in the local LP’s honesty is at an all time low. As predicted the selection of Ms Wright was an especiallly bad political choice that had UKIP rubbing their hands.

Local LP analysts will point to the low poll at Rawmarsh and the Labour vote not turning out. Normally such is caused by apathy, but in Rawmash doorstep returns suggest that it was a positive withdrawal of support.

Can the local LP recognise that many good Labour supporters are appalled by their leadership?

Will the local LP choose the “it’s an aberration” ostrich response, the one that was so successful for Cameron?

Or are they capable of looking at themselves and revitalising their politics. Can the better LP members use the crack to help throw some light on local political processes and thereby reinvigorate the Party?

Personally I won’t hold my breath on this one.

If not, and if Rawmarsh wasn’t a one off then 2014 Council elections perfectly illustrate how the crack may lead to a collapsed building. There are now no safe Labour seats, and for once their opposition has a national platform.

Polling returns analysis shows that even If Labour do a bit better in 2014 than at Rawmarsh then;

Seats going marginal or too close to call:

Dinnington, Holderness, Hoober, Rother Vale, Rotherham East, Valley & Wickersley

 Seats where Labour is dead in the water:

 Anston & Woodsetts, Burton, Boston Castle, Brinsworth & Catcliffe, Keppel, Maltby, Rotherham West, Silverwood, Sitwell, Wales & Wingfield.

 As for Respect, well if they merely nibble at the Muslim vote in Akhtar’s seat then it is goodbye to him. Expect unpleasantness.

Wil Ewart

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15 Responses to Wil Ewart called it right a year ago

  1. Abdul razaq says:

    ‘Revitalising their politics’ they tried that by recruiting the Asians like themselves, the useless maroof Hussain , lord Nazir Ahmed, Shabana Ahmed and jhangir akhatar thinning behind that they have their likes and Will get the Asian votes. Is rotherham west a crack in Asian votes for this useless dictator type liebour setup

    • rothpol says:

      Abdul, Labour still seem to be in denial, the reason they suffered so many reverses was simply because there is a general realisation that Rotherham Labour no longer represent them and they are not listening to them. That and the understanding that their Labour Councillors are just a greedy, self serving and politically corrupt bunch of charlatans!

      • Anonymous says:

        Mahroof was the one behind Jahngirs collapse.
        Behind closed doors
        Mahroof and his best friend Mechanic Shokay was the one who were campaining for the Respect party.
        I thought these 2 were loyal supporters of labour lol.
        They wanted to split the asain vote.
        Amazing how desperate Mahroof was to go for Deputy leader.
        Kick Mahroof out or we the public will make sure you go in 2016.

        Does Mahroof Hussain have no shame.
        2 Votes out of 50 what a joker?
        In 2012 the labour party REJECTED him for Sarah Champion as an MP, why havent anyone been arrested for Wellgate riots because of Moofy friendship with the gandis.
        His the silent assassin.
        Mahroof Hussain keeps telling the labour group his got hold of asian community.
        You go around broom wellgate and talk to asian community and they will tell you they cant stand him as his supporter of Gandis and the riots.
        He attends after everything calms down his had his shave got his grey suit and red tie on and he visits his relatives house in wellgate and makes out that his dealing with the issues.
        Recent election in wellgate there were only 3 banners of labour party through out Bostan castle ward.
        Asian community have started voting for ukip, Lib dem or Respect party.
        His fellow labour councillors have voted against him 2 votes.
        His telling labour party that people love him.
        His only supporters are His brother in law Sajid Bostan & nephews Vakas & Mubeen Hussain.
        I hear Shabana was the other voter who voted for him. Is this blossoming up for an affair between Mahroof and Shabana.
        JANGIR WONT BE HAPPY.
        Loves in the air.

  2. revsimcop says:

    I am no psephologist but I have done a quick comparison of the Rawmarsh figures for the last few years. The three parties contesting the seat on May 22nd (Cons, Lab, Ukip) all increased their votes compared to the by election in 2013, with an extra 550 people turning out. Caven managed to get net 420 of these and that was the difference. Lab got 180 more and the Cons 120 more. Three minor parties lost 170 between them having not put up candidates this time.
    But if you compare 2014 to 2010 the Ukip vote this year is barely 100 more than the combined Ukip and BNP vote in 2010 which suggests that Ukip are not making inroads into Cons or Labour (unless very different groups of people are turning up to vote or BNP supporters have not switched to Ukip in any great numbers, both of which seem unlikely). Ukip have done well to basically keep the right wing vote turning out and to get those extra 420 since the by election, so they can take comfort from that, but overall it is apathy and lack of choice that seems to be determining things. Looking at wider results, Independents and Respect are not really getting their message across to be the alternative and I must take some responsibility for the Indies disappointing showing, having toyed with the idea of running but having to withdraw because of work commitments. What is clear is that there is certainly a vacuum to fill by someone with a clear, moderate left of centre message and a bit of campaigning nous.
    But the biggest story from these figures, surely, is that Labour have lost 1440 votes in 4 years, a massive 54% of their traditional vote which should be a huge, huge worry to them. Miliband and Champion take very careful note, you are going to lose Rotherham by default to Ukip in the next few years. Labour lost 460 compared to the last proper council election in 2012. Wil is correct in that the local LP should heed this massive wake up call.
    Cons have lost 550 since 2010 (100 since 2012) and Greens 290 in the same period. Maybe Cons voters just don’t bother anymore while with Greens, it’s the candidates who havent bothered since 2010.
    If I can’t sleep at night I may go back and do a full analysis of all the results, now where did I put my anorak?

  3. Abdul Razaq says:

    Will the proper opposition in town hall will effect the many decision based on ‘ not what you know , but who you know’ as been practiced in many departments?
    Will we have fairness and justice from the council departments?
    What will be done about the wrong, corrupt practices employed in the Unity Centre and REMA?
    Will any one be held accountable for the clear cut corruption in Unity Centre?
    I am not sure that the opposition as it is will be able to take all this on!

    • Anonymous says:

      Well said Mr Razaq.

      Will the newly UKIP elected councillors raise the money laundering and corruption issue within Unity CENTRE?

      Such as Jahngir family employed within unity centre and REMA?

      The board of unity centre why they sacked 2 partime workers, combined salary of £10.000 and gave the £10.000 salary pay rise to Azizeem Akhtar?

      Akhtars mistress cllr Shabana Ahmed stole £22.000 from unity centre where has that money gone?

      There has been multi million fraud taking place and no one in the local authority or so called charitable trust is looking to investigate WHY?

      Why when it was minuted that the unity centre was named KASHMIR centre was changed to Unity centre?

      We want answers.

      • Anonymous says:

        The simple answer to this is “Community Cohesion”!!! You know, the 2 words which cover up all the mis-deeds, corruption, cheating and down right criminal behaviour of this section of the Asian community. No one will stand up to them for fear of being branded “Racist”.

  4. Abdul Razaq says:

    I was present in the steering committee meeting where it was properly proposed and passed the name of centre to called ‘Kashmir Centre’ only 3 or 4 voted against this name out of approx. 20 present. Laird Nazir Ahmed chaired this meeting. I was also present in the meeting following this. The Unity centre was still used and I objected as the name should be Kashmir Centre. Lord Nazir Ahmed was accused by some one as a gangster. council officials were present in both of these meeting.
    this sums up the ‘democratic’ Labour. Now you understand why I keep referring to them (labour) as DICTATORS

    • Anonymous says:

      They hide behind “ONE TOWN ONE COMMUNITY” banner.
      Nazir Ahmed is known as LARD NAZIR AHMED.
      Is he the one who was texting Saeeda Warsi when he killed someone on M1 few years ago from what i remember.

  5. Abdul Razaq says:

    They not only hide behind ‘one town one community’ but also use race card as well. But they probably more racists and biased themselves and proof is that now Cllr. Maroof Hussain accused Labour of racism. Can he dare deny it?
    Further proof is how the Asian including Lorad Nazir Ahmed, Akhatar, Showkat Ali and Maroof Hussain got elected as labour candidates by going round in Asian community making them members of party in their respective ward, some times paying their subscription and pleading to people to join even for short period so they get selected as candidates,even then Maroof Hussain was not selected in Rotherham East although he won by nor vote. This is the true Labour in Rotherham. He was only selected in Boston Castle after he officially accused Labour of racism
    If they , the just left it to Labour normal membership NONE would have been chosen. Cllr Hussain now thinks the Labour is great regardless how people and our Town is suffering under this regime.
    Labour in Rotherham is total disgrace and their presence in Town Hall must be reduced for improvement in all areas.
    Readers may rightly think that how I know this so I will tell you. I was one of person who was recruited for this very purpose and attended the meetings as member. I decided not to renew my membership at the first renewal ,but Maroof Hussain approached me and pleaded for my help and renew membership for a further year and that when and if he gets elected he will try to change things. So when he got elected he join the clan for personal benefits and recognitions.

    • Anon says:

      I wonder what ever happened to the Anonymous letter which was sent to our very own 3 MPs, local authority, all the community leaders, the leader of council, unity centre. Not sure if it went to Labour party.

      Am sure its almost a year and we have had no response.

      An issue has been raised in Birmingham due to anonymous letter why cant the media investigate the anonymous letter here in Rotherham.

      I cant find that letter am sure Rothpol published this letter last year.

      Can you help Rothpol?

      Or like Sajid Bostan and Jangir Akhtar said they have fixed the council, the police, radio sheffield and the media. May be its true?

      • R. Wilde says:

        Interesting question Anon, one of the allegations in Birmingham is that jobs were given to people – often family members of those higher up – without the job being advertised, which is clearly against the rules. This has been alleged here in Rotherham too (don’t think I need to name names) yet the media don’t seem to want to pick up on it. Something for our UKIP councillors to look into perhaps?

      • Calling UKIP Cllr Vines says:

        Come on Cllr Cavin Vines the saviour of Rotherham.
        Will you please raise the above issues with the meetings at the town hall.
        What more proof do you need for investigation you have anonymous complaints and you have proof that Jahngir Akhtar family works at unity centre and we have the Courages and the lion of the community🐅 🐅🐅Abdul Razak 🐅🐅🐅 who has witnessed the issues which have been highlighted above.
        We know you read these posts and now you are in position to ask these questions.
        Waiting for your quick response SIR.

  6. revsimcop says:

    OK, I am a sad anorak and Wil Ewart is both spot on and strangely wrong. When you look at the figures across the 21 wards, Rawmarsh IS an aberration in that the right wing vote didn’t increase by much there at all between 2010 and 2014. But across Rotherham as a whole, the UKIP voted increased massively from 2010, even if you assume that they gathered up all the BNP votes (and it’s possible that a good proportion of these just didn’t bother). Given that the overall number of voters went down by about 44,000 ( in itself a big worry for democracy, although 2010 being an election may have something go do with it), UKIP managed to pick up a lot of switchers (something like 8,000 more than the combined UKIP/BNP vote in 2010). I assume that none of the 3600 Liberals switched to UKIP and that much of the fall in Indie votes was due to the reduced number of their candidates. So, given the massive fall in both Labour and Conservatives votes, then UKIP are right and the switchers, more than likely, come from both those parties. I eat humble pie. The only other explanation is that thousands of people voted for the first time and for Ukip, which surely cannot be so. Labour vote fell by 46% so they really are tottering. UKIP could have 20 seats by next year unless Labour wake up and change the way they run Rotherham. That in itself is good for democracy if not necessarily a great alternative for Rotherham. Let’s see how UKIP Councillors perform as an opposition. At least we have some opposition. But in many ways the Conservatives did even worse, with getting on for 75% desertion by their voters, meaning they were all but wiped out and, with the Lib Dems, they are no longer a force in Rotherham. In 2010 they at least got two seats and a lot of runners up, this year they didn’t come above third in any ward. No doubt some Indies switched too. It only took me half an hour to cobble these figures together so I do still have a life… Anyone else care to have a closer look?

  7. Sally Kate Taylor says:

    Although not one to offer a glimmer of hope to the tories (they never have to me) they did get 3 extra seat in the local elections with Counciller Turner, Parker and Cutts winning; they simply call themselves ‘Conveniently UKIP’ now..

    SKT xxxx

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