Next Years Elections – Battle Lines Being Drawn

For those seriously intending to contest next year’s borough council elections, the battle is already beginning.

None more so than amongst the cohort of Labour incumbents, coming up for re-election next year.

They have their own re-selection battles to fight and I am informed that things are very likely to get very interesting, in more than a few ward Labour parties in Rotherham come December, when most of the selection votes will take place.

The Labour selection battleground:

Ward Incumbent % Vote Share
Anston & Woodsetts Jo Burton 39.6
Boston Castle Rose McNeely 41
Brins & Catcliffe Alan Buckley 46.8
Dinnington Jackie Falvey 49.7
Holderness Gerald Smith 48.6
Hoober Brian Steele 51.2
Keppel Ian Baron 35.1
Maltby Amy Rushforth 39.8
Rother Vale Richard Russell 47.3
Rotherham East Shaukut Ali 48.6
Rotherham West Jahangir Akhtar 42.6
Silverwood Pat Russell 42
Swinton Neil License 55
Valley Dave Pickering 44.7
Wales Ward Jenny Whysall 41.3
Wath Alan Atkin 56
Wickersley Sue Ellis 48.5
Wingfield Keith Goulty 39

Rothpol can identify at least 8 as incompetents or dinosaurs!

As in 2010, when the General Election was on the same day, the 2014 local council elections, will very likely be affected by the European elections in June.

It is the pattern of change, in voting behaviour, that may give us clues as to which seats may provide opportunities for upsets. See the Rotherham Elections Files. UKIP’s meteoric rise in the opinion polls, which shows few signs of waning, may have profound effects on the results next May.

If I were a gambler, I would put money on a record number of seats changing hands, next year!

9 thoughts on “Next Years Elections – Battle Lines Being Drawn

  1. I/m not a gambler but I don’t think many seats will change hands. The Tory UKIP vote will; split te opposition. Boston Castle, Brinsworth and Anston may change – not too confident. Can’t see anything else. A lot can happen between now and May – we’ll see. A week’s along time in politics (Cliche number 10006765365) but true.

    The standard of the opposition will count as well. I know Labour isn’t exactly endowed with brilliant councillors ( I am being kind) but who will oppose them, how will they peform and what will the defining issue come May,wWhat do they truly have to offer local people, do they understand and represent local feelings, what are the local issues at the time? A lot of questions, a lot of ifs, a lot of variables.

    If some sitting candidates are to be removed It’s no good using the old insult about putting a labour rosette on a donkey and peole will vote for it. People find that patronising and infantile. It;s counter productive and simply an excuse. If you want to change votes minds and oust sitting members it needs intelligence and an adult approach.

    Sadly there are donkeys in all parties. Hopefully some of the alternative candidates will offer hope, policies and vision in instead of platitudes. If not I’m afraid I recind my prediction of 3 – it will be zero change.

    Should be interesting though.

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  2. Never brought information together in this way before and it is thoroughly bad news for Labour.

    There are many seats where the percentage of the popular vote is incredibly low for Labour, even though on this occasion, the simultaneous General Election should have benefited Labour, due to the increased turnout.

    It didn’t, why?

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  3. It does look very interesting. But it depends how many stand in each ward. How many will vote? Landslide Governments can be formed in the country by parties getting only a third of those eligible to vote to back them if the opposition pull in diffreing directions.. It’s all about getting the turnout through the particular turnstyle. Some with 35.1 (Keppel) can retain power – which I feel they will do. While others on 46.8 (Brinsworth) can loose – which I feel is possible. If anyone is to succed they have to start testing the waters now. Try to tap in to each wards feel and mood. Otherwise all the effort will be wasted.

    Personally I can hope for but can’t see a ‘Rotherham Spring.’ But by targetted campaigning (and don’t simply go on percentages – though they are a guide) I feel some seats are vulnerable. Look at what seats do tend to change / haved changed before – target those. By all means try in them all but pick out the vulnerable for whatever reason that may be and go for it big time. and most imporatntly make sure the candidate is good enough – not just the one who can shout the loudest or insults his or her opponant the most .

    In other wards a local issue may be ‘a foot in the door’. However it has to be a popular and not personal one or it’s a none starter. Research is needed on the ground me thinks. (Greasborough and district – housing maybe?). Come next May resources for the opposition candiadtes will be limited – the electorates mind may be concentarting on other things – but hey ho let’s go and think what can be done and what maybe can’t. After all ‘an ostrich has wings but still can’t fly no matter how it tries.” (Quite fast runners are ostriches though).

    There’s an old saying thats goes “To change many lives first you to remember do people really want to change – and if how – otherwise you will be left shouting at the wind.” (French I have been told – appologies to UKIP but Ich bin European merci beaucoup muchas gracias etc)

    Yes, local people are fed up of Stone and his crew ( As am I) but to change voting habits it will take more than disgruntlment. (By the way can you actually be gruntled? – answers on a post card please).

    Good luck and best wishes xxxxxxxx

    PS: I will desist from old quotes now. I’m in one of those silly moods. Sorry. You do have my support however.

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  4. Interesting article Rik.
    I think your table will have more impact if you can show the actual number of majority votes each councillor holds, for example Jo Burton has a majority of 273 , Judy Dalton has a majority of 543 so both these councillors are vulnerable to a small % change if/when voters decide to vote for alternative candidates.
    I agree with SKT-in part-particularly about voter apathy and the different percentages needed to unseat sitting councillors.

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  5. Unless the 6 or so that surround Roger Stone lose their seats, nothing will change however many others lose.
    Rotherham is run by those few and all the other councillors are surplus to requirements. They have no power at all and just turn up to collect their allowances.

    It’s Stone’s seat other candidates should focus on – loosen Stone’s grip and there may be change. Better still target the Stones cliche and be rid of em all

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    • Anne appears to be suggesting a ‘decapitation’ strategy. This can only work if opposition groups look closely at their realistic chances of winning and, if they conclude it is hopeless, standing aside to allow others a clear run.

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  6. change, change, change?……… you will never get or experience change until you get rid of the likes of asbo , stone and to an extent shauket ali as well………..ali is a snake who just decides not to “hiss” like asbo and throw a paddy whack at the first and every available opportunity. I think you also need to focus on the question of “what has ali done for the community”?……..he’s another one voted in every time through the so called baraderiesm contacts……….come on rotherham people you are decent and clever folk………we are just walking around with our eyes shut……open them for once!!!

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  7. Reblogged this on maltbyblogger and commented:
    Poor Rotherham. What hope is there with the crew we have ‘At the top’ ? Should be interesting though and hopefully some opposition with their minds set on the town and community rather than their own power9

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  8. Jo Burton or he replacement will not be elected in Anston. What have the Labour party done for Anston the last 20 years, other than suck up to RMBC.

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