57 thoughts on “Labour’s Election Strategy in Meltdown?

  1. It’s not an exact science but when these National picture poll is translated to the Yorkshire demographics would produce a outstanding result!
    Ukip 3 seats
    Labour 2 seats
    Tories 1 seat
    Liberals1 seat
    Quite how this will transfer to the Local Elections taking place on the same day is anyone’s guess but it is unlikely to harm UKIP.
    Indeed there may be some, ‘Remember Rawmarsh’ results to come?
    Both Labour and the Tories may have much ground to lose! We shall see come May!

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  2. I would imagine Labour would be even less happy if it were an accurate projection of the results, but it isn’t. By just reporting the Over-60’s vote, whoever you got that chart from is totally distorting the facts. It’s not only the over 60’s who vote – even if they are more likely to vote.
    _____________________
    Read what YouGov actually says, not what someone has selectively used some YouGov data to say:
    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/16/european-elections-ukip-closes-first-place/
    ___________________
    And it’s not how the serious newspapers are interpreting the same YouGov data:
    The Telegraph:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10575868/Tories-to-come-third-in-Euro-elections-behind-Labour-and-Ukip-poll-warns.html
    ” Labour would receive 32 per cent of the vote, Ukip would get 26 per cent and the Conservatives would get just 23 per cent.”
    The Indie:
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/yougov-poll-tories-to-come-behind-labour-while-lib-dems-may-lose-all-their-meps-9064341.html
    __________________
    Get a copy of http://www.amazon.co.uk/How-Lie-Statistics-Penguin-Business/dp/0140136290 and read it, its a good book.

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  3. Rothpol,
    thanks for adding the picture from the YouGov site! … and changing the title of the piece!
    But just where did you find the Over-60’s chart?

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    • No problem but I was unaware that I had changed the title? The chart is doing the rounds on twitter.
      Thought it might be interesting for readers!

      Labour’s Key Seat strategy is believed to be backfiring badly this time around, many glum faces on the Labour benches. Wrong Leader I shouldn’t wonder?

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      • I was wrong, you hadn’t changed the title. Sorry, my apology!
        The chart was interesting – but only as an example of selectively distorting another organisation’s stats. 🙂

        When you dig deeper into those YouGov figures, it shows, for us Northern Voters:
        Labour 39%
        UKIP 24%
        Tory 17%
        (my calculation from YouGov figures after excluding “wouldn’t vote” and “don’t knows”. )

        Which looks somewhat different from the national figures of:
        Labour 32%
        UKIP 26%
        Tory 23%
        Could I possibly therefore suggest a new title of “Labour maintain vote in Northern Heartlands” 🙂
        Bit late to change the leader of the party before the election. Yvette Cooper afterwards?

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    • Wasn’t aware regular reader was being rude?
      Don’t take offence on behalf of others, no one is above criticism on here, not even myself!
      That’s the only real rule of the house, oh and no swearing!

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    • I try never to be rude, certainly not to anyone who contributes to this site!
      I was simply critical of what I saw as someone unknown misusing statistics for their own ends, and as someone who has a strong background in statistics I was angry with that unknown person, and tried to point out to the blog/forum what the numbers actually said.

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  4. I hope the Lib,Lab,Con parties all take a hammering in May- particularly in Rotherham they deserve to. But a week is a long time in politics and these figures are predictions,not nailed on certainties. Remember the 2001 polls that said Kinnock was going to win that year’s general election. There’s only one poll that matters and that’s the one on polling day! People have been known to lie to opinion polls.Don’t count your chickens!

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      • Sorry wrong date. Yes Rotherpol, you’re right it was the 1992 election, but the point is still a valid one. Because of the polls Kinnock and “New Labour” thought they were a certainty to win hence the triumphalist rally in Sheffield.The polls were wrong then and they can be wrong again. Though I do hope they turn out to be correct, they are a guide not a certainty!
        R/R we should remember there a lies, dammed lies and ………..! Even with the best will in the world ( and rogues do distort them ) statistics are only as accurate as the people who collate them and humans do make mistakes as my earlier post demonstrates.

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  5. Pollster’s predictions about election voting intentions and who electors actually vote for has been shown to be ‘Not An Exact Science’.
    The May 2013 local elections surprised everyone-including UKIP!
    The fact that UKIP can sweep up voters from the other two main parties says two things; Either to register dissatisfaction-a ‘snub’-with the Tories and Labour and/or a genuine belief Britain should renegotiate with the other Member States about how Britain and the EU will continue in the future.
    The anti UKIP protesters have not, in the main read all of UKIP’s manifesto, preferring to quote sections or from speeches and articles that are out of date.
    Labour’s current manifesto is cliché ridden and regurgitates most of what got us into the financial mess under the last Labour government. Chucking money at problems does not work.
    The Tories are heading for disaster, after less than 4 years they are drifting aimlessly and Lib-Dem partners or not, we need and must have political leaders with strong convictions and a firm belief in the ingenuity, inventiveness and resilience of the British people. Perhaps the voters see that in Farage.
    You are not obliged to agree.

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    • Colin, quick question : where do I find UKIP’s current manifesto?
      It is the climate change section I am most interested in initially. I read an earlier version that, as I remember, was written by Lord Christopher Monckton – but I think he is no longer a member of the party. Has the policy been updated?
      __________________
      I’m don’t care what other people think of Farage, I like him.

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  6. If the 16-24 year old’s could be bothered to vote, would they vote for the three parties who have killed off any attempts for them to get in the job market. 1,000,000 18-24 year old’s are unemployed. 50% of 18-24 year old’s now go on into further education, in the 80’s when I started in the job market, it was probably less than 10%.

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  7. I watched the European Parliamentary debate on The Freedom of Movement, it was interesting that Farage was not there, one UKIP MEP was and it was obvious that the group UKIP are aligned with is the most right wing fascist groups in Europe. Tim you should also point out that UKIP are free marketeers and they let the market dictate policy, so they would follow an even more right wing line than the Tories. Free market policy does not bring freedom it brings wage slavery that means lower living standards and unemployment.

    Dave Smith

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    • Dave. I hate to say this, but the majority have been worse of since the implementation of the minimum wage. We have to win the war and elect UKIP to do this, we can then vote another party in after this. Churchill wasn’t exactly a popular figure, but he got the job done and was respected by the people.

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  8. Tim, Dalton will be returned, the reason, the opposition vote will be split, if you really want Dalton out then you need to sit down like grownups and decide who will stand and then get your resources behind the candidate.

    At this moment in time Dalton is back with an increased majority.

    You will only have yourselves to blame!

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    • @Anonymous.
      “At this moment in time Dalton is back with an increased majority”
      Evidence??

      Once we start the ball rolling (and if I get my way with the wording of Independent leaflets) then at least one Labour councillor will not be re-elected and Mummy Dalton’s majority will be reduced.
      Elections are not the time for pussy’s.
      .

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      • As far as I know it is Burton up for re election, not Dalton. The Independents will all rally around the best candidate for Anston. The Labour dragon will be slayed.

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  9. Anonymous. It happened last time when Clive replaced Daren Hughes. I just need to know that we are getting behind the UKIP candidate 100% this time and not splitting the vote with another Independent.

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    • The trouble is I can’t find any info on the internet about the UKIP person representing Anston. I need to know that the person is going to stand up for Anston and make a difference. I would have thought a twitter page would have been the first thing they would have set up. I can certainly help with delivering flyers if we can all support that candidate.

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  10. All this talk from Tim about election management by means of collusion and manipulation between parties or groups prior to nomination, concerns me.

    I always thought it should work like this, all candidates seek nomination, those successfully nominated, then submit themselves to the will of the voter by ballot!

    The voter is the one with the power! Pity labour has forgotten that in Rotherham!

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  11. Rothpol. So Labour, Conservative and Liberal don’t do the same in private and get the candidate who will most appeal to the electorate in that area. As somebody who lives in Anston, I want to ensure that we get the Independent who most appeals to the majority and gets elected in Anston and will ensure that Anston gets treated better by RMBC. I don’t want to see 75% voting Independent and getting Labour, which has happened in the past. It is a case of centralised Labour, versus Independent Anston. Personally I would like to see RMBC split back down into the bodies that existed before 1975, which represented us far better. If anything I am naive by discussing these issues in the public domain, not in private else where, which others will be doing.

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      • So Labour didn’t choose Sarah Champion to stand in Rotherham central, because she would best appeal to the voters there? It just happened without any discussion!

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        • That may well have been the case but there will have been no collusion between labour, liberals or the Tories, which is what you were claiming? or did I misunderstand you?

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    • ” I want to ensure that we get the Independent who most appeals to the majority”
      THe whole point of Independent Candidates is that they are independently minded, and quite unlikely to agree with each others political views.

      In the Anston election:
      2010 – Colin Jepson 13%, UKIP 11%
      2011 – Colin Jepson 12%, UKIP 8%
      2012 – Colin Jepson 41% (elected), UKIP didn’t stand.
      2014 – UKIP are standing.
      Tim, do you want a UKIP candidate or an Independant one?

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    • Rothpol I can’t imagine Labour, Conservative or Liberal colluding. But as Independents we want the best for Anston, so it would be appropriate to pick an Independent who would would beat the other three. Sometimes there has to be a compromise, to stop Labour, Liberal, Conservative getting in.

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      • Your adherence to the democratic principle is some way off beam. You are now contradicting yourself!

        It is up to political parties, of all persuasions, to decide for themselves whether to stand a candidate or not.

        You cannot presume to include UKIP amongst those you refer to as Independents!

        I am sure they would not like it one little bit!

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  12. Tim you keep going on about independent then tell everybody to get behind UKIP, you don’t seriously believe UKIP are independent do you. You will probably have the same problem finding the UKIP candidate in Anston as we have had in Dinnington they are just paper candidates; no good to anyone.

    Dave Smith

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    • Dave. UKIP are the only party who allow debate and don’t whip members. If UKIP had their way, they would introduce referendums, now that is real democracy. I am swung between an Independent and UKIP. I need to talk to Bernard to find out how he will stand up for Anston, I am fed up of everything being centralised on Dinnington and you guys getting all our services. At a MP level, I would well and truly love UKIP to kick Kevin Barron into touch and for us to leave the EUSSR. All the best Tim

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  13. The UKIP candidate for Anston and Woodsetts is Bernard Froggatt.
    The UKIP candidate for Dinnington is Ian Finnie.

    Ex-Labour party member Graham Wilson (Anston) has defected to UKIP and Graham was a long serving member of the Labour party for many,many years. He should be saluted for his decision to leave the Labour party.

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      • Well – Labour are the single largest group in Rotherham to begin with, so even a small percentage of them leaving would probably make them the “single largest group joining UKIP in Rotherham” 🙂

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      • Always astonished that someone who was a member of a supposedly socialist party can suddenly join a right wing party – and pretty hard right at that. Strikes me as opportunism, or shallowness. Either way, not very attractive.

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    • The only able bodied members labour will have left soon, to fight elections, will already be or want to be on Rotherham’s ‘money go-round’!

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    • That is brilliant news about Graham defecting from Labour to UKIP. I know at one bit he was he was one of Labours stalwarts. I bumped into a traditional Labour supporter, who has defected to UKIP and wanted to know when there would be a meeting in Dinnington.

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  14. Don’t vote for anyone who jumps ship at this stage. It’s not rocket science. I’m not talking about Labour voters defecting here, that’s a protest vote for you… but Labour insiders suddenly realising that the ‘left’ was wrong and thatcherite UKIP are right…? Seriously? Do they honestly think that the public are that stupid? This is worse than national Lib Dems suddenly telling their constituents that they never really liked the tories….

    Give me a break. Election season must be upon us!

    PS: To those who may try to equate UKIP with Independent candidates – stop, please. Everyone sees through it. It’s unedifying and does your party no favours. Stand up and proselytise on UKIP policies by all means – we might not agree, but that’s why Colin Tawn is respected on this site. He is UKIP and proud and that’s why I like him (but not his ideology, sorry Colin lol.) If we’re looking for real independents, we need to be looking to people like the Rev Simon. I’d vote for him. (For what that’s worth!)

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    • @Warren Vale.

      Sorry I’m late back to this thread. Rev.Simon Copley has decided he will not be standing for election this year because of other commitments.
      It is a pity as I believe he would have been an excellent Independent candidate and through his work for his parish he probably understands more than most people what a councillor for Anston & Woodsetts can do, and should do to represent the Ward.

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  15. Pingback: There’s trouble ahead? | Rotherham Politics

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