There’s trouble ahead?

The ComRes/Independent opinion polling research for January 2014.

There’s little here for Labour to cheer about, click here to get the full report as a .pdf:

Comres jan 2014 2014-01-28

See Also:

Labour’s Election Strategy in Meltdown?

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The Tories are not very happy either at the latest polling evidence on voter sentiment:

6 thoughts on “There’s trouble ahead?

  1. UKIP must be on for about 34%. Ashcroft did similar surveys for Eastleigh and Rotherham central and put UKIP on 10% and the outcome was 25%.

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  2. Very difficult to know how the votes in any particular area will split when we only have a national average. However, one way I have found to be reasonably reliable is to look at the national vote share when the particular seat or ward was last contested and then adjust the votes on that occasion pro rata to the change in overall share. One very big caveat in that it only works on the assumption that there will be the same mix of candidates and parties at each contest. Quite reasonable for parliamentary elections when there are a large number of votes but in local elections the winning margin can be so low as to make victory/defeat almost a matter of chance.

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  3. Labour have been pinning their hopes for next year’s General Election, on the results of private polling in their ‘key seats’ strategy which have, until now, shown a differential from the national picture, distinctly in their favour. Not any more, if the recent evidence is reviewed in this context? Wheels coming off Labour’s election campaign so early in proceedings? Certainly looks like it!

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    • … well now, if you’re a betting man Rothpol, you might clean up, if you were to but your money where you put your keyboard is.
      http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

      It’s always interesting how Comres 2000-person on-line poll for the Sunday Mirror/IoS always lags behind their 1000-person telephone poll for the Indie.
      Must worry Comres statisticians.
      ______________________
      Personally I trust the bookie’s view on it all. They employ some really good stats people/quants and do put their money on the line; whilst the pollsters hate to deviate from their existing trend-lines – it’s bad for their image.

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  4. I’ve just noticed Judy Dalton’s comment “Our lovely supporters are holding a fantastic quiz night for us on 4th April at Magna”
    Q1: How does she know it will be ‘fantastic’?
    Q2: Will any of the questions include “Explain how you read a budget sheet correctly” or “What is the name given to councillors who deliberately ignore the wishes of residents?”
    Q3: Will her ‘lovely supporters’ be expected to make donations on the night to the Labour party and will the amount be published?
    Q4: Will Cllr.Dalton rush immediately to the telephone at the end of the quiz to make sure her photograph is published in the ‘Advertiser’?
    Q5: Does JD know Magna is in Rotherham and not Sheffield?
    Q7: Will Cllr.Dalton be claiming expenses for this jolly?
    She might be better employed using Friday evening 4th April holding a public meeting to explain why she and the Labour councillors on Anston Parish Council have ignored their manifesto and why she was a party to the decision to borrow a total of £252,000 from the Public Works Loan Board to buy greenbelt land?

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