Spin over substance – the abuse of statistics

This week some information of a statistical nature, was given to the local press, Star and Advertiser, who swallowed the spin, hook line and sinker.

Chris Burn of the Star, has admitted to me, he has not been able to find or read the report cited as Appendix A in the report published as:

https://moderngov.rotherham.gov.uk/documents/s101199/The%20Way%20Forward%20for%20Rotherham%202015-2018%20-%20Friday%20Version.pdf

whose facts have been quoted in his article in the Star, see:

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/majority-of-rotherham-child-exploitation-suspects-are-white-claims-new-report-1-7392637

I have little doubt the Advertiser has not seen the appendix either, before dutifully publishing their piece, not unfortunately available online as yet.

Although the evidence is not yet complete, the current interpretation of this information is factually inadequate and just plain wrong.

The facts are these:

Population breakdown for Rotherham borough, 90% white, 3% Kashmiri/Pakistani

from the latest available information, download here.

Figures quoted by the Rotherham Safeguarding Children’s Board, 68% white, 24% Kashmiri/Pakistani. For some reason this report is no longer available, coincidence?

In order to correctly interpret prevalence figures such as these, it is vital to understanding to compare the two to see if there are anomalies.

The calculations are very simple, you divide the observed proportion in the study, by the population proportion to see whether there are results out of line indicating problems, if everything is in proportion, the result will be 1 in each case.

For the white category therefore, the calculation is 68/90 which equals 0.75. In simple terms people classified as white, are under represented in the statistics by one quarter.

In the case of those classified as Kashmiri/Pakistani, the calculation is 24/3 which equals 8. This can only indicate that those in the Kashmiri/Pakistani are over represented by a factor of 8 times!

8 times the expected prevalence is an extraordinarily high figure, which is the fact that should have made the headlines not the one used, as even that interpretation was wrong, as can be seen above.

There will be those who will still not understand the plain facts of the situation or deliberately try and put an incorrect spin on this information but the facts speak for themselves, they do not lie.

Which ever way you cut it, Rotherham still has a very significant problem with child sexual exploitation, carried out by Kashmiri/Pakistani men. A problem that must be recognised by all, in order to take the steps necessary to eradicate the grooming gangs that still operate in our town.

Rik

29 thoughts on “Spin over substance – the abuse of statistics

  1. Let us assume, for the sake of argument, how Prof. Jay’s and the victims’ assertions and the crimes numbering approx. 1400 are correctly ascribed to mainly Asian men, then let us also assume that the Public Health Rotherham report’s statistical dispersal is correct – it must then follow that there are at least another 3000+ unreported/detected CSE crimes?!?!?!

    The Authorities have indeed been even more useless than we thought.

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  2. I don’t know why you are surprise, that the Star and the Advertiser, would’ve been hoodwinked by this report. They clearly don’t remember that this Counci was lying to them before and anything they tell them, should have a Government warning “Do Not Believe”.

    Then again, there aren’t what you would call venerable bastions of press anymore. Remember they had the biggest story in their history, on there own doorsteps. One of the biggest ever stories from Yorkshire, the country. A story that reverted around the world. They never had a clue, just like they don’t have a clue what’s going on in Rotherham. There more interested in how many advert they can sell, than doing what they were really created for, informing the local people of local events. No wonder the local press is declining. You can get more news from the Internet, than today’s so call press.

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  3. This one rumbles on. So to be clear, in 2011 78% sexual offenders prosecuted white (80.9% found guilty). Source: ‘Overview of Sexual Offending in England and Wales’ published on 10 January 2013 by Ministry of Justice and Office for National Statistics. No one is saying that there hasn’t or isn’t an issue with Pakistani street grooming gangs. I think the point being made is that CSE is one form of sexual abuse and there are many methods other than street grooming such as via the Internet more prevalent in white offenders. Maybe it’s time to accept this and move on to a place where we all advocate abusers being caught and brought to justice whatever race, colour or creed?

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    • The report you quote from, though true, is an irrelevance here.

      The study you quote, focuses on convictions across the entire country, not complaints only from a single borough as we have here.

      With reference to your most recent comment, try to be a little more patient, please.

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    • Once again, as with others, you are trying to obscure the facts and thereby minimise the problem. This blog is about Rotherham, not the rest of the country. The facts are, 1400 and maybe more children were abused, by how many perpetrators, still unknown, over a period of time. They were abused by a subsection of the communtiy , which represented over 3% of the population. If we further breakdown this percentage, by gender, it could be less than 2%. Whichever way you paint it, a small number of the Pakistani community as cause a lot of problems for Rotherham and done a lot of harm.

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      • There are many Rotherham’s though

        “8.80 The association (not of all CSE, but group-based CSE) with mainly Pakistan heritage is undeniable, and prevention will need both national understanding, communication and debate, and also work with faith groups at a local level. A national recommendation is made…….

        With a significant proportion of those found guilty nationally of group CSE being from a
        Pakistani and/or Muslim heritage, relevant government departments should research
        why this is the case, in order to guide prevention strategies”

        Oxford Serious Case Review

        I’ve not seen any sign that the recommended research is being undertaken

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    • Given what we know about the very large scale of group/gang related CSE in Rotherham, Sheffield, Oxford, Rochdale, W Mids etc, where the amount of prosecutions/convictions in relation to the number of offences has been absolutely miniscule, then I am not at all sure that it is helpful to draw much by way of conclusions from this 2013 report.

      Secondly I think that most people would say that racially/religiously aggravated group/gang grooming, mass rape, sexual torture, trafficking and highly lucrative pimping(plus other associated criminality) represents a great step change in evil in comparison to the lone offender active on the internet

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      • Apologies. I don’t think it is irrelevant given the meltdown on the site at the notion that sexual child abuse is perpetrated by all races, colours and creeds. The local picture in 2014 is what has been reported. I’m sure the police will have the statistics to put this to bed. I think we should accept that it happens, it always has, it shouldn’t and those found doing it should be brought to justice whoever they are.

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  4. Book by Darrell Huff – “How to lie with statistics” (1954)
    Yes, it is old but I believe it is possible to get a free download. It is humorous and it covers most of the bases when it comes to using numbers to tell lies for you. There are other books on the subject but I just love this one!
    A very classic trick is being played here in a vain attempt to cover up a major cultural problem, that of two cultures so different that integration and assimilation may not be possible whilst at the same time pretending integration is complete.
    The problem with lies is that they can catch up with you and then everything you say even when telling the truth if not believed. as in the old tale of the liar in the house fire: ” … and when she shouted fire fire they all answered little liar…”

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  5. Hello Rik,

    You have somewhat misrepresented our short email conversation. You contacted The Star asking about the report referred to in the story. I provided you with links to the public board papers and a link to the ‘The Way Forward’ report where the figures where quoted.

    Here is a direct link to the report which I have just checked and is still working this morning for anyone else who wants to read it: https://moderngov.rotherham.gov.uk/documents/s101199/The%20Way%20Forward%20for%20Rotherham%202015-2018%20-%20Friday%20Version.pdf

    You are correct that the Public Health Report does not appear to have been made available online. However, these figures have been used in a publicly available report, that has been presented in a public meeting to councillors and officers.

    Given the context of what has emerged in Rotherham, I would agree the figures are surprising. But it is also of public interest to report on them. My story makes clear who has produced these figures, compares what ‘The Way Forward’ report says in relation to the differing findings of the Jay report and also makes clear the smaller time frame being looked at by Public Health Rotherham. I feel it is a fair and accurate reflection of what the new report says.

    I would argue it is in the public interest for people to know what information is being presented to councillors and officers about CSE in the town.

    Chris

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    • Thanks for your comment Chris.
      There may be some confusion here, the report that is missing, is that referred to as Appendix A at 3.1 in the document you provide the link to, which does not appear to be available, although cited as the prime source.
      I have also amended the text for clarity, I hope? Rik.

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    • If it is in the public interest to present a misleading and totally unsubstantiated article, from a source with a dubious past, Rotherham Council and its associated partners, in relation to the know facts, Professor Jay and Lousie Casey reports. then the impression most people of Rotherham would’ve gather about our local press, is that not only are they incapable of doing a traditional journalistic job of informing the public of current events, as an independent source, which would scrutinise information, before they publish it. They surely must’ve realise the implication of the piece , demonising white people as the major threat to our children, by claiming they were the biggest culprits in abuse cases. This , as we now know to be untrue.

      No where in the article , did they qualify these figures, by explaining that the investigation into the Pakistani abuses of Rotherham children, has only just begun, and a potential 300 suspects have been identified.

      While recent efforts into reporting into this sorry saga, are to be commended, the question, everybody in Rotherham , would be asking is when did this paper first find out about CSE. Why did Jane Senoir, feel so insecure, that she took the story to Andrew Northfolk, instead of her local rag?

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  6. Some years ago when Sir John Stevens, the then Metropolitan Police Commissioner stated that the majority of street crime in London was committed by the black population, a statistical fact! He was pilloried and demands made for him to resign for stating FACTS. The whole of the police service was deemed to be institutionally racist because black people said so.
    It has been a known fact for many decades now that there is a predominance of Asian men who are sexual abusers of women and girls, particularly in certain sections of that community. However, we the white public have never been allowed to talk about it or expose it because WE MIGHT UPSET THESE POOR PEOPLE same as the black people of London were upset because someone exposed FACTS about them.
    It is time now for the white majority in the country to fight back, treat these people for what they are, abusers of the white people and their children and the hospitality given to them when they came here. We must ask the question, is Islam and its culture conducive to living in Britain where the majority of people follow the Christian faith and culture. I don’t think it is, I think it is in direct conflict with our culture.

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    • Totally agree with your comments, if someone has a statement to make, based on accurate figures, then they should be allow to make them, without fear of retrobution from those, with a self interest in Protecting a certain interest group. The problem has been clearly identified , 1400+ White children were raped, abused, trafficked and threaten with violence, by Pakistani (Muslim) men.

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  7. Pingback: Majority of Rotherham child exploitation suspects are white, claims new report | Rotherham Politics

  8. Pingback: ‘Misleading’ claim on most Rotherham CSE abusers being white wrongly included in report | Rotherham Politics

  9. Much of the abuse may be explained in the core beliefs of a religion common to most in the “non-white” category. This site quotes directly for the main texts of this religion. http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/
    It seems that rape of an unbeliever is sanctioned as is deception of any kind that enables the religion to expand its domain.
    Female children from the age of 8 are available for the beds of male believers.
    What in one cultural belief system may seem normal or even honourable in another society may be seen as despicable criminality.
    I live in a society and come from a tradition where these acts are despicable and criminal. However in expressing this I expose myself to Fatwa h, Jihad and murder as an unbeliever. I am so glad I do not follow such a nasty tradition and accept the risk.
    The next person who comes up with that old lie of “religion of peace” please ask them to get acquainted with the facts.

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    • “Much of the abuse may be explained in the core beliefs of a religion common to most in the “non-white” category.” .
      Hmmm,
      If you are suggesting that Islam is the most common religion for the “non-white” peoples of this world, you may well be wrong, very wrong. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_religious_populations

      Whilst it may be true that you can quote mine the Koran for the phrases that that nutter American blogger found, they are not relevant to to the daily life of the people of the Middle East, Horn of Africa and Magrebi muslims that I have lived and worked amongst. Heck, I can well remember when Morocco was the go to destination for gay men from Western Europe and the US.

      I have always thought that it had to be more to do with the rural areas of Kashmir and other rural groups in the Indian subcontinent. But I recognise that explains nothing, that other factors are involved; and I know nothing about that part of the world, And I am sure I will be reminded of the activities of young Moroccans in the Netherlands.
      _____________________
      Just because you find something on the web doesn’t mean it’s true.
      Today, I read that Oscar Wilde wrote a poem titled “The Ballad of Reading Jail” – well not quite!
      It was actually called “The Ballad of Reading Gaol” . I visit Père Lachaise every time I go to Paris.
      Perhaps you’d like to correct it. It was on your own website.

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      • I deliberately do what I do and anything on my web page is as I put it I will brook no criticism unless of course you can write a properly scanning sonnet in the next 30 minutes after reading this. Wilson Crocker, You and any other controlling personalities can just frustrate yourselves by bawling out your orders that will be quite properly ignored.

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  10. Regular Reader you are becoming a nuisance.
    The “non white” category refers to the data about ROTHERHAM and not the WORLD! (see above)
    I have asked for the link to my poetry page to be taken down from here as I just filled in a box when first logging on. That is for a close circle and I made a mistake inputting it here. I have not repeated that mistake elsewhere. I have no way myself of removing it to remove you as a nuisance.
    But the poem you criticise, “Kiss of Caiaphas” may have struck home. Tough, it must describe your soul.
    Your attempt at literary criticism are as relevant as those of Wilson Crocker. You are not qualified unless you can write yourself. Your sonnet is awaited.
    As for the link I know it is biased. It is not my bias it is a Christian bias. You know, a differing perspective? Perhaps if the quotes from the holy book are wrong, if they are I am sure you can from your lofty height correct them.
    For myself I have no time for that God stuff that is really a cover for power over others.
    I will ask my relative who helps with my site to see if you can be blocked.

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    • Sorry to be a nuisance! 🙂
      I only re-found your site due to the fact that clicking (even by accident) on your Gravitar User Icon on this site – and it is particularly easy to do accidentally in the Recent Comments column – try it – send me directly to your poetry site,
      I’d rather it didn’t do that – I don’t want to read your rhymes; why would I, when there is so much great writing available on the web, both directly and via booksellers?

      So fix your s-ing Gravitar!

      … and I was only trying to tell you that you had misspelt the title of a poem I really love.

      RR

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      • Spelling
        English is a living language.
        When I type quote from the past I use current spellings. I do this as in the past I have worked on adult literacy projects. My personal preference is actually for archaic language styles.
        I write poems of varying quality and I write nonsense rhymes, again you choose an abusive tone. Perhaps you could read the following for a few tips in real quality abuse.
        http://englishhistory.net/keats/john-keats-critical-opinion-quarterly-review/
        You also choose to be an apologist for a particular religion.
        Again you give instructions.
        Get off my case and go and get a life.

        Here’s a poem for you and your dark ages chums:

        Dark Pages

        The gibbet and the rope
        The blood soaked block, the axe
        With kings who conquer Hope
        How can our kind relax?

        The blood that’s on the ground
        The poison in the cup
        With all of this around
        Oh, come now, do drink up

        The hate that will not pass
        The blood that’s left a stain
        More will be and surpass
        The past with all it’s pain

        The strong who do not care
        With so much spite and hate
        Indifferent they stare
        Is all this down to fate?

        The gibbet and the rope
        More blood drips from the sword
        The thugs that kill all hope
        It’s throttled with their cord

        The power of the few
        May well be turned on each
        In this there’s nothing new
        Good times are out of reach

        from Aelfread and Gudrum (2003)

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  11. Pingback: Some clarity from Hotspot | Rotherham Politics

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