Local voting figures shed new light on EU referendum

The BBC has obtained a more localised breakdown of votes from nearly half of the local authorities which counted EU referendum ballots last June.

This information provides much greater depth and detail in explaining the pattern of how the UK voted. The key findings are:

  • The data confirms previous indications that local results were strongly associated with the educational attainment of voters – populations with lower qualifications were significantly more likely to vote Leave. (The data for this analysis comes from one in nine wards)
  • The level of education had a higher correlation with the voting pattern than any other major demographic measure from the census

Read on… http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034

Download the data: http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/news/special/2017/newsspec_15869/ward-results.xlsx

14 thoughts on “Local voting figures shed new light on EU referendum

    • Exactly….. intelligence unfortunately seems to be measured by the ability to remember other peoples ideas text and teachings……indoctrination .. you could argue that the very people that voted out did so after much of their own thinking etc …. not some other persons thoughts and ideas…I refer to such so called “educated people” as sheeple. Thank god for people who think for themselves .


  1. No doubt mileage will be made about how “dim” Leavers are and how we don’t understand the issues – you know, the usual intellectual arrogance (you are dim), the moral arrogance (you are racist) and the ageist arrogance (you are old).
    I am educated to Masters level and I think I can hold my own against any Remainer.
    But the alternative conclusion to draw is that the EU is failing the marginalised classes miserably…and not just in the UK.


    • Rev Simon,
      “I am educated to Masters level and I think I can hold my own against any Remainer.”
      … and I am sure you can, what was your subject?
      … andI have a vague recollection that you attended Dulwich College (or was it Hampton school?) both give you a great start in life, open to few of the rest of us, ( – my son did went to Hampton)..

      I am a Remainer, I feel that I have valid concerns for the future of UK outside the EU, but I do not consider Leavers dim, racist or old – a bit hard for me that last one, given that I am 74 years old.
      People have different life-experiences and priorities and that is what forms their views.
      I half agree with your alternative conclusion, but as I see it, it is the UK government that fails the marginalised classes.
      Nothing angers me more than when I see reports like this one:
      I was once one of those working-class kids.


      • Hi Reg, i did indeed go to Dulwich, a very good school that gave me a very good and balanced liberal-arts education. We could do with every school in the country being that good. I was once beaten up for expressing left wing views. I failed to get a free place so my dad slogged his guts out to pay for me to have a fee place. It seems one N Farage went there at the same time but I do not remember him!
        Thanks for respecting the brexit arguments but I find you are in a silent minority among remainers. My MA was in social and pastoral theology ( broadly, the study of the operation of ethics and values in social organisations) which included modules on the CQSW course which was v interesting, meeting young trainee social workers who felt even more irrelevant to society than the ordinands! Of course, when our marxist lecturers had to start every lecture on the origins of the different segments of the welfare state with the words, through gritted teeth, “This aspect of the welfare state has it’s origins in the activity of the church…” we ordinands felt very smug and not so irrelevant!!


        • Lovely reply – and it made me smile.
          My masters was in Computer Science – part-time Birkbeck.
          NYU later gave me the one up from that. EU-related careerwise – I was heavily involved in setting up the ECB and with its precursor organisations.

          My son’s was Politics and Social Policy (MSc – with distinction!) LSE, He went to Hampton, after a primary in Basel, Switzerland and a Pre-school inside the US Embassy in Addis Ababa – armed Marines patrolling and a very elderly female Aldabra giant tortoise as class pet – she loved the kids, and gave rides!
          He’s involved in the EU’s Galileo system project on behalf of UK Gov.He spent a year of his BA in Bremen – EU funded Erasmus.

          His Mum’s MA was in Public and Voluntary Sector Strategy – part time Kingston. OpenU later gave her a well deserved DUN. Although she is long retired she still is heavily involved in a couple of EU Erasmus+ projects in her field of disabled persons and their access to Higher Education.

          Are you really surprised that we are all committed Remainers?
          Europe, including the UK, is our home ground.

          Btw. I have little to no time for the European Commission.
          I left UK to live in mainland Europe when Thatcher brought in the poll tax. There was no way I would pay that iniquitous tax. UK being in the EU it was easy, just as it was for the guys in Auf Wiedersehen, Pet.


  2. Depending on how you frame a question it is quite possible to get the answers you want.
    ‘Public surveys/Opinion polls’ are unreliable tools to try and predict outcomes and attitudes. (See Referendum vote) I for one despise being patronised as a poor achiever/poorly educated and incapable of making an independent judgement.
    All the BBC has done is to reinforce its own biased view that people who voted leave are members of the lower order and cannot be trusted to make rational decisions.
    Complete tosh.


    • Colin, you totally and utterly misunderstand what the BBC
      This not survey/poll whatever, it is actual election data at district level mapped against actual demographic data of the same district level.
      Nothing is perfect but for anyone who works with data, please believe me, this is just about as good as it gets.


  3. @rr
    I don’t think I misunderstand the BBC at all. (More of that later)
    Clicking on the data link all you will see is a poorly constructed Excel spreadsheet with about 50% of the constituencies left blank. If you’re trying to tell me it is possible to analyse this and produce convincing data that backs up the BBC’s assertion that most ‘Leave’ voters are not well educated-and by inference not well informed-then I despair.
    I understand the BBC and it’s agenda very well. Ever since the referendum it has consistently prefaced news-good or bad- about GDP/Exports/Imports and manufacturing with the words ‘Despite Brexit…….’
    Because of their in built left wing bias programmes such as Newsnight have lost a lot of credibility.
    The Daily Politics programme hosted by Andrew Neil is much more credible because AN is IMV a proper journalist who is not afraid to shred politicians.



    It is not difficult to understand the BBC’s agenda on Brexit.


    • Colin,
      By itself that particular spreadsheet says only what you can see in it, but when you link it to other, easily available, government data souces of demographic data at the same level of detail – as the BBC obviously did – then a picture will come out. If and when I get time I may well do it for the Rotherham data – but give me time, please.
      (… and please understand, I am on home ground on this. Looking for patterns across multiple sets of raw data used to be much of my job in the 1980s.)

      The Daily / Sunday politics is an excellent program, a near must watch IMHO, but please don’t expect me to follow links to a Spectator blog, the Daily Express and the Sun for their interpretations of what happened – why didn’t you just link to those sections on Youtube to allow me to make up my own mind.
      But at least you didn’t link to something on Breitbart – so so many thanks for that.



  4. @rr
    Thanks for that. I look forward to your analysis.
    A few other thoughts: London and the inner cities provided the the strongest Remain votes, seats with high ethnic minorities and heavy student populations. Most of Wales, East and Northern England cities and towns voted Leave-(Towns like Stoke and Copeland for example) which are mainly Labour controlled.

    I find it bizzare that people attempt to link a referendum result to educational and social class status. We know that in general elections the C2D classes for example do not always vote for the Labour party candidates. Conversely C1’s do not always vote for the Tory party candidates so I’m at a loss to understand what the BBC is trying to ‘prove’.
    Leave won. Get over it.


    • “Leave won. Get over it.”
      Not a hope, sorry.
      Your demographic analysis totally fails to explain the rcent Richmond Park by-election.
      At the moment I don’t have time to look for the full demographic data of that area – one I know well, but this gives a good analysis of the area:

      “I find it bizzare that people attempt to link a referendum result to educational and social class status. We know that in general elections the C2D classes for example do not always vote for the Labour party candidates. Conversely C1’s do not always vote for the Tory party candidates so I’m at a loss to understand what the BBC is trying to ‘prove’.”
      It is because statisticians do do that analysis that we know.

      An analysis of the Anston referendum data v. local demographics will come up just as soon as I have time. : – }


  5. Pingback: The Week That Was – Last Weeks Top Ten 11th February 2017 | Rotherham Politics

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