Our data shows that the huge Conservative lead just after the election was called has narrowed notably. But how do the current vote shares translate into seats and what sort of majority – if any – would this give Theresa May, should people’s votes remain the same over the final week of the campaign?
To see, we have produced a new election model based on Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification analysis, which will update every day between now and June the 8th. This is something we publicly tested during last year’s EU campaign and it always had “Leave” ahead.
Click on image below to view the latest seat projections:
Voting Intention: Conservatives 42%, Labour 39% (30-31 May)